Barely a fortnight ago, the Western media was discussing the possibility of American and / or Israel’s air strikes on Iran’s nuclear installations and the consequences thereof. This threat had created panic in oil markets, as price of the oil barrel suddenly zoomed past US $ 140 p.b.Then comes news of Iranian Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, describing ‘Israel as the friend of Iran’, in an interview to State owned Iranian news agency, IRNA, which took every one by surprise including Israelis.
It is interesting to note that no one has ever expressed doubts over the legitimacy or an authority of Mashaei to make such kind of statement and no Khominist has ever denounced him for making such kind of over friendly gesture towards Israel. Moreover, there is no retraction or clarification issued by the Iranian vice president himself till this date over his statement. Having talked to the state news agency, there was no question of saying, that I was quoted an out of context, which is quite prevalent all over the in these days, when such statement backfires on its maker.
And now the Iranian president Ahmadinejad has granted permission to the US journalist to set his foot on Iranian soil after two decades and has given him an interview that was telecast for thirty five minute on last Monday (28th July, 2008) on America’s NBC television channel which was conducted by its anchor Brian Williams in Tehran. At the outset of the interview, Ahmadinejad gave a very special and a cordial message to the people of United States which is a clear indication Iran’s renewed earnestness in re-establishing diplomatic ties with US, provided America showed her sincerity as well.
http://www.iran-daily.com/1387/3185/html/
Everybody is aware that two years ago, the same Iranian president was advocating the ‘destruction of Israel’ and wipe her out from the world map, which made people to wonder, whether he sane enough to know what he was saying? As regards US, ever since Iranian revolution in 1979, the world America is synonymous with ‘Satan’ i.e. an enemy of Islam!
After assuming Ian’s numero uno position three years ago, Ahmadinejad had expressed a complete recalcitrant attitude towards both, Israel and US, which he did not hesitate to display even during his US visit in September, 2007 when he was invited by the Colombia University to participate in world leaders’ forum. Though on hosts nations’ soil, he did not loose the opportunity to vent his diatribe against the US. The conference venue witnessed hundreds of Americans holding placards denouncing a visitor from Tehran.
The Americans on their part too, have often accused Iran for inciting the radical Shiaite elements in Iraq for nurturing them with material and logistic support to her Western neighbour, where the situation is not at all normal as it is made out to be.
As if this was not enough, the outgoing US President George Bush was also openly soliciting in the middle of July, 2008 the air strikes on Iran’s nuclear installations. In January, 2002 while delivering his speech in the State of Union address, US president had coined a new term an 'Axis of Evil', in which he had placated Iraq for its WMD programme and Iran & North Korea for their nuclear programmes and had solicited for tackling these nations by all possible means.
On this backdrop, after watching Ahmadinejad’s thirty five minute interview to NBC on Monday night, one wonders, how can there be sudden change of heart on the part of Iran?
However, the events that have taken place during the past six months or so, give credence to theory that both US and Iran have started realizing the necessity of rapprochement, as their diplomatic and trade ties had cut off since 1980, in the wake of the seizure of American embassy in Tehran, by the Iranian students for 444 days.
However, this new line of thinking from the Iranian side was manifested for the first time, when the Iranian President Mahmood Ahmadinejad spoke to the media during his visit to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on the eve of D-8 summit meeting in early July, 2008, as he revealed his willingness to consider a U.S. diplomatic office in Tehran! However, he was quick to clarify that he had not received any such official request from US.
It is also no less significant that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice too, has repeatedly offered to start a political dialogue with Iran if Tehran heeds U.N. Security Council calls to suspend its uranium enrichment effort, which U.S. officials believe is weapons-related.As on the date, Iran operates an interests section in US, through the embassy of Pakistan in Washington, while the American interests in Iran are looked after by the Swiss embassy in Tehran.
While it is bit premature and also hasty to pinpoint any reason or reasons that have made both the powers to engage in reconciliation debate, one has a feeling that failure of US President’s agenda both in Afghanistan and also in Iraq might have promoted Americans to have a re-look of the geopolitical scenario in the Persian Gulf.
There are some possible reasons to this rapprochement like:- (1) the sudden spurt of terror activities initiated by Taliban in Afghanistan, more so in Pakistani controlled FATA border, (2) the failure and also complete reluctance on the part of the Pakistan establishments (both civilian and military) to hold Talibanis in check, if not totally to root them out, (3) the declining security scenario in Iraq, might have also prompted Iran to have re-thinking of its ties with US, as she can’t afforded to be surrounded by the three trouble torn nations.
As early in the first week of July, 2008, it was openly said in the world media that both US and / or Israel had almost finished their strategic planning for striking the nuclear installations in Iran and they were just unrelenting in their resolve to do so. On the other hand, Iran too was getting increasing realized that the air strikes on her nuclear plants were quite imminent (though based on false, incorrect data) and there was no escape from the wrath! What happened in case of Iraq was about to happen Iran. But serenity has finally prevailed.
The world community knows that how the US President’s decision to attack Iraq has cost America very dearly and it has turned out to be a huge misadventure. George Bush (Jr) ventured to attack Iraq, even as the US mission in Afghanistan was unfinished and it was not at all yielding the desirable results. Till this date, almost 5,000 US soldiers have lost their lives in Iraq and there is a deep resentment back home in US over outgoing President’s overzealous act of invading Iraq based on false data of Iraq’s WMD programme.
As regards Iran, the likes of former US President Jimmy Carter (and also IAEA officials El Baradi) have been repeatedly saying that Iran was then four to five years away from developing nuclear weapons. Notwithstanding this, George Bush (Jr) had temerity of advocating the air strikes on Iran’s nuclear installations, when no one was certain about Iran’s nuclear capability.
After hearing the fresh rapprochement feelers getting emanated from Tehran towards Jerusalem and Washington, one is experiencing a sense of disbelief, as Iran has remained tremendously hostile towards world’s thickest friends for more than two decades. One wonders how can it happen? Under what compelling circumstances, Tehran has started showing white towel!
Now it remains to be seen, how Saudi Arabia, the keepers two holy Muslim shrines would react to this new found love between Tehran and Washington. How the Wahabbis in other parts of the world too would react to this development? What would be reaction from Al-Qaeda?
When Israel and Syria can initiate a dialogue after being hostile for forty years or so, one should not be surprised at all by the recent overtures made by Ahmadinejad towards US & Israel.
Be that as it may, one can’t ignore Iran’s strategic location in the Persian Gulf and its proximity to Silk Road going through Central Asian Republics, the oil and gas filed of which have no been still explored to their potential. If friendly with Tehran, the Americans can get a direct access to Central Asian Republics through the Iranian sea port Bandar –e - Abbas. That is not so through Gwadar, in Pakistan which is now under Chinese control. As Pakistan is increasingly emerging as a failed State, the US can’t afford to pin any more hopes on it. Moreover, China is a principal alley of Islamabad.
It seems the possible energy crisis coupled with emergence of energy potential of Central Asian republics, might make Iran as a most significant nation in the whole world and not just in the Persian Gulf alone. Perhaps that might have made Ahmadinejad more saner and given him a belated realization.
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