Over trumpeting of Advani & Modi combine led to BJP's defeat?

The Indian democracy is funny indeed for more ways than one. In short, the people in this country are most unpredictable as ever. After three rounds of elections, the Indian media was agog with the news that the BJP led NDA was slightly ahead of Congress led UPA at the end of that round.

After fourth round, senior Congressman and former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Digvijay Singh talking to Karan Thaper's Devil's Advocate programme broadcast on CNN – IBN had went to the extent of indicating that if the situation demanded then Congress would prefer to sit in opposition, suffice to say that it would not seek the support of Communist parties Third Front or from the State oriented parties like RJD, LJP, SP, etc. to form the government.

On this backdrop, the NDA's rally at Ludhiana (Punjab) was billed as huge success, as NDA was able to secure the presence of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, alongside Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and so TRS Chief K Raj Shekhar Reddy' too joining the jamboree, which led many pundits to believe that NDA was finally taking up its shape.

However, the opinion polls at the end of fifth and final rounds, in which entire Tamil Nadu was put on hustings, started giving pleasant signals to the ruling Congress led UPA and some anxious moments to the BJP led NDA.

Now with the poll results are out, there is definitely pall of gloom at 11, Ashoka Road, Delhi, BJP's national headquarter and with the resignation of Lal Krishna Advani, as the leader of Opposition, the BJP is likely to be thrown in some kind of confusion, if not in chaos, until its fact finding mission comes out with the reasons for unpredictable and unassuming debacle.

Blessing in disguise for Congress: -

There is no single reason that can be attributed for the unexpected success and spurt in the rise of Congress tally. In fact, when the polls were just announced initial rallies conducted by Rahul Gandhi in Amethi had not attracted even ten thousand people. Even his election rallies in Vidharbha region of Maharashtra too did not have a desirable impact.

In fact, the media had started virtually writing off Congress not only in Maharashtra, where Congress rules in conjunction with NCP, but also in other parts of the country as well, as the projection of Mr. Narendra Modi as 'PM for 2014' started gathering momentum.

Congress which had fared very badly and relegated to fourth position in the wake of 2004 Parliamentary polls, was doubtful starter in Uttar Pradesh which is having of eighty (80) the largest from any state in the Indian Parliament.

Even in Andhra Pradesh, people had started writing off Congress, as Raj Shekhar Reddy government was hardly making its presence felt and farmers' suicide were as high as that of neighboring Maharashtra. The impromptu entry of Chiranjeevi in AP state politics was hotly debated in the media, and so also 'the 'return of TDP'. But, alas, the results have shown otherwise. Even Congress has done relatively well in the assembly elections as well in that state, though its new government might not be so comfortable in terms of majority.

The success of Congress in Maharashtra too is equally amazing, as according to media reports the 'anti incumbency factor' was strongly emphasized by all and sundry as the performance of Congress – NCP alliance has hardly shown any positive work during the last five years and in all for the last ten years. Electricity shortage, water shortage, unemployment, law & order in the waked of 26/11 Mumbai bombings, were all supposed to work against Congress.

However, a maiden electoral venture by Raj Thackeray led MNS (Maharashtra Nav Nirman Sena) has significantly contributed to the success of Congress at least in city of Mumbai, where it could garner five sets out of seven. Thanks to one hundred thousand votes secured by MNS in each of these five segments.

Congress too has done relatively better in Gujarat, which makes one wonder, what happened to Modi's charisma? Is it waning? Or has it stagnated? Or is it illusionary?

Though Congress has not done well in Bihar, it has maintained its momentum in Rajasthan, which it had secured after the debacle of Vasundhara Raje's in assembly elections few months ago and it securing seven out of seven seats in national capital, has astounded many.

As a matter of fact, in one stroke, it has ended notoriety of likes of Mayawati in UP and that Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswant in Bihar and have in the process decimated their parties.

All in all, one feels its not because of Congress wave, but its traditional voters from Muslim and Dalit communities have opted for it, instead of banking upon the regional parties like BSP, SP, RJD, LJD, etc. after the BJP started trumpeting the duo of Advani & Modi put together.

Perhaps, a wrong message might have been sent in the process that could have made both Muslims and Dalits to go for perennial savior Congress, rather than any other outfits.

Once the constituency wise minute statistical details are out, perhaps some more light can be thrown it.

Will it now work?

Although, Congress led UPA government completed successfully five year term, many were finding it difficult to say that the Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh was in full control and command of his government as many a times, it was openly said that real power lies with UPA Chairperson Italian born Madam Sonia Gandhi. ! It was she who called the shots and Dr. Singh is merely reduced to puppet and often described as a 'lame duck prime minister'.

Here was an uncharismatic man who was not even a member of lower house of Parliament (Lok Sabha), but he could drag on, even after passing through a heart ailment.

Now, though Dr. Singh is tipped to be the next Prime Minister (second after Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru to be sworn in after completing five years in office), one wonders' he would show some more determination in tackling scores of issues as he would no longer be dependent on whims and fancies of left parties, this time. Though Lalu and Mulayam can cause a tantrum or two, they can be ignored at times, when the national interest would be supreme.

I for the one feel that Congress led UPA was on very sticky wicket, while handling the terrorism in its last rule and as the state like Maharashtra too would be facing assembly elections in five months time from now, it would again go slow on the hanging of Afzhal Guru, lest it antagonizes minority votes.

Delicate areas to trade with:

Though having a comfortable majority now, the Congress might still be cornered on two fronts, as it has readied SP's support, as the latter will be always for Mayawati's dismissal and also her prosecution through CBI till end.

Also, the DMK is another delicate area, which Congress will have to trade with. With the situation in Sri Lankan war is reaching its peak, Congress will have to get prepared for the tantrums of DMK Chief Karunanidhi.

The situation might become worst, if the rumor of endgame of LTTE's Chief V. Prabhakaran is true. DMK though in power in TN and part of ruling alliance at Delhi, might be tempted to take such step, which would cause a huge embracement to New Delhi in terms of international relations with Sri Lanka are concerned.

Apart from SP & DMK, Congress will have to do tight rope walking on two more fronts. The two things which have persistently beset Congress since its inception. 'Dynasty' or 'personality cult' and minoritism, whether its Mrs. Indira Gandhi, Mr. Rajiv Gandhi was ruling. With Rahul Gandhi all set to join the Union Cabinet (presumably as the Deputy Prime Minister with External Ministry portfolio with an independent charge!), the Congress this time too, would come under pressure and would compromise on several things, where the interest of minorities or any other caste is involved.

How many of you remember that the first thing which Congress I led UPA did last time after coming into power 2004 was to repeal POTA at the cost of nation's interest. How it turned out to be detrimental to India's security, we are all aware of it.

Hence, the return of 'sycophancy culture' and an 'appeasement of minorities' would continue to beset Congress, which would be akin to pre – 1977 situation.

It’s a vicious circle that has been created by Congress in which its still reeling.

However, be that as it may, let's give Congress led UPA government some breathing time to settle down, instead of getting involved in speculation business and merely criticizing it!

December – 2009 would be ideal time limit to have a fresh look at its policies and to take stock taking of its performance, as by that time Maharashtra legislative assembly elections would also be over!